The Dancing Bear is dancing his way up I-95.

On Tuesday, the New York Knicks agreed to sign Guerschon Yabusele to a two-year, $11.7 million deal via what appears to be the taxpayer mid-level exception, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. Jason Dumas of 6ABC reported the Sixers had “informal talks” with Yabusele but never made a formal offer, and he “never followed up with the Sixers for a chance to match the Knicks’ offer.”

If the Knicks did indeed use the taxpayer MLE to sign Yabusele, they’ll be hard-capped at the $207.8 million second apron for the remainder of the season. They’re currently only $3.5 million below the second apron with 12 players under contract, according to Yossi Gozlan’s indispensable CapSheets.com, which suggests they have at least one salary-shedding move still to come.

So, why did the Sixers reportedly balk at making Yabusele a concrete offer? Quentin Grimes’ ongoing free-agency saga is likely to blame.

Had the Sixers used the taxpayer MLE on Yabusele like the Knicks did, they also would have hard-capped themselves at the second apron. At the moment, with 13 players under contract (including Ricky Council’s fully non-guaranteed $2.2 million salary), they’re at roughly $185.8 million in salary, which leaves them $22 million below the second apron. From there, start working backwards and it should quickly become clear why they were reluctant to spend the taxpayer MLE at this early juncture in free agency.

Had the Sixers re-signed Yabu at that same price point, they’d be up to $191.5 million in salary, which would leave them only $16.3 million below the second apron with 14 players under contract. They could waive RC4 and leave his roster spot open, as team president Daryl Morey has typically done since he took over in Philly, which would leave the Sixers with roughly $18.5 million in flexibility below the second apron.

That might sound like plenty, especially with players such as Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Duncan Robinson, Dennis Schröder and Caris LeVert all settling for contracts in the $14-15 million/year range. However, in the days leading up to free agency, Tony Jones of The Athletic reported Grimes was “looking for a contract that averages $25 million per season.” (His agent apparently failed to warn him about the looming free-agent recession.)

Had the Sixers come to terms with Grimes quickly, they’d know exactly how far away they were from the second apron and whether they had enough wiggle room to use the taxpayer MLE. But had they re-signed Yabu first and hard-capped themselves, they’d leave themselves open to getting blindsided, much like the Milwaukee Bucks seemingly just did to the Indiana Pacers with Myles Turner on Tuesday.

While losing Yabu to a division rival stings, the good news is that financial flexibility is quickly drying up around the league. The Nets took on a ton of additional salary by acquiring Terance Mann in the Kristaps Porzingis trade and trading Cam Johnson to the Denver Nuggets for Michael Porter Jr. and a fully unprotected 2032 first-round pick. The Atlanta Hawks theoretically could have tried to arrange a sign-and-trade of Grimes using their $25.3 million trade exception from last summer’s Dejounte Murray deal—although base-year compensation rules would have complicated that—but they appear to have burned most of that on Alexander-Walker.

No one in their right mind woke up Tuesday and imagined the Bucks would waive and stretch Damian Lillard, so we can’t rule out a total wild card jumping into the Grimes mix if negotiations go on much longer. However, leverage is clearly on the Sixers’ side for now. If the two sides remain too far apart, Grimes might even decide to take his $8.7 million qualifying offer to become an unrestricted free agent next year, although that wouldn’t give the Sixers access to the $14.1 million non-taxpayer MLE.

Long story short, the Sixers were a victim of timing here. Free agency tends to move quickly in the opening hours and days, as players want to lock up their bags before the game of musical chairs runs out on them. Since the Sixers had to be wary of hard-capping themselves before resolving Grimes’ situation, the Knicks were able to swoop in and sign Yabusele for the same deal that the Sixers could have offered him.

With Yabu gone, potential taxpayer MLE targets are drying up—four of my favorites are already off the board—although the likes of Chris Boucher, Trey Lyles and Precious Achiuwa remain available. If the Utah Jazz eventually buy out KJ Martin, whose $8.0 million salary is fully non-guaranteed until Jan. 10, the Sixers could always pursue a reunion with him as well. Maybe they’d make better use of his balloon deal this time, too.

The Sixers allowing Yabusele to walk isn’t necessarily a sign that they won’t use their taxpayer MLE this offseason. (Even if they don’t, they could use it as an in-season trade exception.) They just needed to resolve Grimes’ free agency first, and the clock to re-sign Yabu ran out on them.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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