Tinubu-Shettima 2.0: To be or not to be?
The plot to drop Vice President Kashim Shettima from the presidential ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027 may have opened a new phase of apprehension for the party in the lead up to the next general elections, LEO SOBECHI reports.
The recent bedlam at the North-East Zonal Consultative meeting held in Gombe sounded the echoes of the 2022 presidential nomination process of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
As the meeting convened, only the privileged insiders of the party were privy to the discussions about the plans to alter the composition of the party’s presidential ticket for the 2027 poll. It was a move which preceded the election of the current incumbents as President and Vice President.
When in June 2022, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu beat eight other contenders to clinch the APC presidential ticket, five outgoing state governors were optimistic that the position of running mate could fall on their laps. At the front row of these possible number twos were the Governors of Kebbi and Niger State, Senator Atiku Abubakar Bagudu and Mohammed Bello in that other.
But, on the account of the power play that swung the presidential slot to the South, outgoing Kaduna State Governor, Nasir el-Rufai; Abubakar Badaru and Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, came into the full view. It was learned that when the horse trading that preceded the June 6-8 Special Convention and Presidential Primary thickened, Tinubu had approached the five North-West governors individually and pleaded with them to support him for the trophy with a promise that “if this succeeds, we shall work together.”
Inside sources disclosed that it was based on that political promise that “we shall work together” that energised the governors to pull their weights behind Tinubu and shifted from earlier arrangements to support either of the former Chairman of Nigeria Governor’ Forum, Dr John Kayode Fayemi and the then Transportation Minister, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, whom they believed had the ears of then President Muhammadu Buhari.
The original plan for the APC ticket, party insiders said, was to throw up a Southern Christian candidate and a Northern Muslim. That might explain why as the primary election date drew nearer, aspirants like Senator Ajayi Robert Borrofice were conscripted into the fray when the body language of the presidency was overtly tilted away from former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and the incumbent President.
But all those hankering after Buhari’s endorsement floundered immediately former Vice President Atiku Abubakar emerged as the standard bearer of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Who will defeat Atiku, became the singsong and major criterion.
And so, with Tinubu’s vanquishing of Buhari’s taqqiyya plot around Dr Ahmad Lawan for the APC ticket, the question of the feasibility of a Muslim-Muslim joint appearance on the ballot took over the conversation.
It was in a bid to strengthen the hands of Tinubu, the APC presidential nominee, that the former Kaduna State governor, el-Rufai, imposed his deputy, Dr Hadiza Sabuwa Balarabe, as the running mate to Senator Uba Sani, who had won the party’s ticket for the gubernatorial poll in Kaduna.
Sounding very convincing with his postulations as to the viability of the Muslim-Muslim option joint ballot, el-Rufai’s name came up as a strong possibility as Tinubu’s deputy. But despite the five outgoing governors’ expectations that one of them will partner the former Lagos State governor in prosecuting the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu went to the North-East.
First, it was gathered that the presidential nominee preferred the first term Borno State governor, Prof. Babagana Umara Zulum. Upon receiving heads-up about his possible choice as presidential running mate, Zulum was said to have told Tinubu’s emissaries that if indeed he was favoured with that slot, he would rather that his benefactor, Senator Shettima, be taken in his place.
Whether the narrative existed as fancy or fact, Senator Shettima was ultimately announced as the APC presidential cohort for the February 2023 poll. As expected, and feeling disappointed, the five potential running mates were said to have complained to President Buhari.
They were also said to have confronted Tinubu, wondering how the APC presidential candidate could avoid the North-West vote-bank and settle for a person from the troubled North-East, where the PDP had chosen its flag bearer.
The contention over the choice of Shettima delayed the campaign flag-off of the party, the same way the search for a running mate elicited the recourse to a place-holder in the person of Abubakar Masari. Reason was said to have prevailed when President Buhari counseled the North-West governors against doing anything that could jeopardise the chances of APC retaining the Presidency and providing a leeway for PDP’s return.
However, like a woman cured of insanity, the choice of Shettima and the attendant Muslim-Muslim religious implication, continued to manifest subdued mutterings. That subdued lunacy was what played out last weekend in Gombe.
Bamu ayi (We say no)
Some delegates that spoke to The Guardian after the botched meeting, disclosed that immediately the zonal stakeholders were invited to the meeting, words started making the rounds that the APC national chairman, Ganduje, was coming with a brief intended to test the waters about the impending surgical procedure on the party’s presidential ticket.
They said the corrective surgery was to address the issues of Muslim-Muslim ticket and zonal balance in the allotment of political positions, including the running mate and chairmanship of the party. As a guarantee to retaining his post, which has already been zoned to the North-West, Ganduje was said to be privy and complicit in the plan to placate the North Central and recalibrate the party’s presidential ticket.
Against that background, it was obvious that even before the APC National Vice Chairman (North-East), Comrade Mustapha Salihu, delivered his endorsement of President Tinubu without including his Deputy, nerves were already frayed.
Further, Governor Zulum’s open rebuke of his Gombe State counterpart, Inuwa Yahaya, for being complicit in the plot to sequester Shettima, gave rise to insinuations that the Borno governor hired some ravers to cause the pandemonium.
Said a former commissioner, who was a delegate to the stakeholders’ meeting: “We actually wanted to descend on Salihu (North-East Vice Chairman) to teach him a lesson and prove to APC that it cannot get away with the betrayal.
“You want to use and dump Shettima? If the Muslim-Muslim ticket is not good again, why not organise another presidential primary? We know that the President must have planned this and directed Ganduje to execute it in the guise that it was endorsed by the zone’s leaders.
“We are people of former old North-Eastern State and we wanted to make President Tinubu to understand that North-East is not Lagos and that Kashim Mustapha Shettima is not Madam Kofoworola Akerele-Bucknor (Tinubu’s deputy in his first term as governor.)”
It was perhaps on account of the chaos that trailed the endorsement of President Tinubu outside his mate, Shettima, that the stakeholders could not agree on a communique after the meeting. The open disagreement between Governor Zulum and the host governor, Yahaya, left the burden of producing the communique on the shoulders of Chairman of North-East Governors’ Forum, Mai Mala Buni of Yobe State.
At the end of the day, signatories to the communique could not been procured without raising afresh the contentious issues of disparate endorsement of President Tinubu. If indeed, as it is said, that the truth could be established from the testimony of two or more witnesses, Ganduje’s decision to echo Salihu’s endorsement of Tinubu sans Shettima, erased any reasonable doubt that mischief was intended against the incumbent Vice President.
As things panned out, Governor Buni’s welcome remarks seemed quite prescient. While noting that the North-East region had always played crucial roles in the politics of Nigeria, the NEGF chairman recalled the positive beliefs he nursed for APC all through his two terms as the National Secretary and briefly as acting national chairman of the party.
He stated: “l had once predicted that APC would continue to be Nigeria’s ruling party for a long time, insha Allah. I, still remain optimistic and resolute that APC would continue to be Nigeria’s darling political party, especially with the rich investment of your humble selves in the party.
“Therefore, it is important for us to continue promoting the values that unite us, address the few wrangling, give party supporters a sense of belonging, and improve on our reward system.
“However, as it is with all successful human endeavours, APC is not totally free from disagreements and manageable squabbles. Your wealth of experience in party administration and governance, would always provide solutions to all challenges and threats. The North-East zone would always remain a role model of emulation for other geo-political zones.”
Due process
But, in an attempt to pushback on the expanding perception that Shettima was being prepared for sacrifice to appease the venom of overt national revulsion against Muslim/Muslim ticket, the APC North-East zonal Vice Chairman, Salihu, explained that he was merely observing due process by focusing the endorsement on President Tinubu.
Salihu, who appeared on a Channels Television programme, said the convention is usually for the presidential candidate to name his/her preferred running mate, stressing that “there is no such thing as a joint ticket during party primaries.”
While dismissing the suggestion of a cold war between Tinubu and Shettima as a creation of conflict entrepreneurs, the North-East Vice Chairman maintained: “Only the presidential candidate emerges. And, it is entirely his prerogative to choose a running mate, after he becomes the flag bearer…Even though the party and stakeholders may be consulted, constitutionally, it is solely the candidate’s right.”
Not long after Salihu’s appearance on the live Television programme, a chieftain of the party from the North-West, told The Guardian that the North-East Vice Chairman was being clever half.
He argued that what Salihu was saying could only obtain if a fresh nomination process was to in view, remarking that “for an existing joint ticket, the endorsement should go for the ticket as a package, unless you want to bless the pregnant woman and exclude her foetus.”
The party chieftain argued that even if Shettima is no longer wanted, a beter approach would have been adopted. He stated: “I mean, if somebody chooses to be partisan, you don’t blame him. Everybody has his interests and raison d’etre or his motivation, you know, interest in politics,
“Unfortunately, you know, the whole party, because they have chosen and read the body language of the President, though he is interested more in power than anything else, that’s why they are all over, falling over themselves to endorse him.
“But, on the other hand, you know, by endorsing him, they also, they expect to be endorsed and like Ganduje he wants to be left in the party position as chairman, looking at the challenges he faced in the early period. Governors want to endorse, the Reps want to endorse, senators want to endorse, House of Assembly wants to endorse, you know, I mean, they are closing the door on democracy.
“So, even this chaos in the North-East was avoidable. You know, and ultimately, because these people are not interested in good politics. Otherwise, what should, if there had been sufficient consultation, such a chaos, embarrassing chaos wouldn’t have happened, you know.”