I am one of the people who expressed optimism about SA’s agricultural recovery in 2025 after a poor performance because of drought and animal diseases in 2024. I still hold this view, but now I think it will be more of an uneven recovery.

We continue to receive encouraging data about the recovery of some subsectors of agriculture. One of the latest industries that posted such data is that of table grapes. The 2024/25 total harvest inspected is 78.9-million cartons, 4% higher year on year, according to data from the SA Table Grape Industry. Favourable weather conditions and better farming practices are the primary reasons for this.

The table grape industry is export-orientated, and the improved output also means exports were robust. SA’s table grape exports reached 77.8-million cartons, up 5% from last year. The EU remains a significant export market, accounting for about two thirds of SA’s table grape exports, followed by the UK at 18%, North America at 10%, and the rest to the Middle East, Black Sea, Asia and Africa.

The dominance of the EU, UK and North America underscores my point about other commodities and the need for SA to manage its relationship with the existing export markets while continuously exploring new markets for diversification. This also highlights the importance of the US market for SA’s agriculture.

Table grapes, citrus, nuts, wine, ostrich products and fruit juices are among the key agricultural products SA exports to the US. These are some of the sectors that are at risk from higher tariffs.

The table grape industry is in a favourable season, similar to the wine industry. SA’s wine grapes harvest is forecast at 1.244-million tonnes, an 11% recovery from the exceptionally poor harvest of 2024, according to data from SA Wine and Vinpro. Moreover, the quality of the harvest promises to be exceptional, which again means export activity will remain a primary focus.

The wine industry has considerable exposure to export markets, similar to table grapes. Notably, the wine industry also seeks further access at lower tariffs to key markets such as China, where SA still faces higher tariffs than its competitors in Australia and Chile.

This year we also expect a robust harvest in other major fruits, such as citrus and deciduous fruits, which underscores the earlier point that at the farm level production conditions have been generally favourable; the focus now lies on export activity.

Fortunately, the improvement in logistics has also broadly supported exports. This does not mean the challenges at the ports are over; far from it. It only suggests that the collaboration should continue to improve logistics for these export-orientated sectors.

These fruits and wine harvests build on the positive observations about grains and oilseeds. SA’s 2024-25 summer grain and oilseed harvest is estimated at 18.01-million tonnes, up 16% from the previous season according to data from the Crop Estimates Committee. This is also due to favourable weather conditions and a decent planting area.

Still, it is not all sunshine and roses in the SA agriculture sector. The livestock industry continues to battle foot and mouth disease and the temporary closure of various export markets, for instance. This has placed immense financial pressure on the livestock industry, which was already struggling from the effects of the last outbreak and higher feed costs.

This means while the field crops and horticulture are seeing a better recovery, the subsector that accounts for nearly half of the SA farming economy will continue to struggle, thus explaining my prediction of an uneven recovery.

Written for and first published in the Business Day

---