The No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies (20-5, 9-3 SEC) take on the No. 21 Mississippi State Bulldogs (18-7, 6-6 SEC) Tuesday night. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Texas A&M-Mississippi State prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Texas A&M: +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +138
Mississippi State: -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -166
Over: 142.5 (-114)
Under: 142.5 (-106)
Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT
TV: SEC Network
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Texas A&M wins games because of their defense. The Aggies allow the second-fewest points in the SEC at just 65.4 points per game. Along with that, they hold opponents to the third-lowest field goal percentage in the conference, and they give up the third-fewest offensive rebounds. Texas A&M does a great job contesting shots and grabbing those defensive rebounds. Making sure Mississippi State goes one and done down the floor is going to be important in this game.
Texas A&M is riding a five-game win streak heading into this game. In those five games, they have beaten some pretty good teams. They have allowed under 70 points in four of those five games, and under 65 points in each of their last three. Their defense is very good, but it has gotten better in the last few games. They will need to keep this up on the road Tuesday night. If they can hold Mississippi State to under 70 points, they will have a great chance to cover the spread.
As mentioned, Texas A&M wins games with their defense. This means they do not play the best offense. In fact, the Aggies score 74,5 points per game, which is the second-fewest in the conference. Not being able to put up points is going to catch up with Texas A&M eventually. Mississippi State allows just over 70 points per game, so they have been pretty good defensively this season. If they can hold Texas A&M to below their season average, they will put themselves in great position to capture a home victory against a top-10 team.
Mississippi State's key player is Josh Hubbard. He is the leading scorer on the Bulldogs at 17.4 points per game. In his last five games, Hubbard has scored 22.2 points per game. This is thanks to a 38-point game against Alabama, but the Sophomore guard is still more than capable of putting up big games. Mississippi State needs him to do just that Tuesday night. If he plays well, Mississippi State will be able to win this game while covering the spread.
This should be a good game. The SEC is arguably the best conference in college basketball, and any team is capable of winning any night of the week. With that said, home games matter a lot in college basketball. Three of Texas A&M's five losses have come in true road games, which is something to keep in mind.
I do think the Aggies will prevail on defense in this one, though. Because of the spread being so small, it is better value to take Texas A&M to win straight up. I will be taking their moneyline Tuesday night.