NEW YORK — The U.S. e-commerce sector is facing its most significant slowdown in over a decade, as new tariffs and shifting trade policies disrupt consumer behavior and force retailers to overhaul their fulfillment strategies. According to a new survey from AlixPartners, the online shopping ecosystem is grappling with broad-based declines across nearly every major product category, a direct consequence of President Trump’s escalating trade war.

“Elevated consumer awareness of tariffs is clearly flowing through into buying decisions,” said Chris Considine, a Partner in AlixPartners’ Retail practice. “You can see how people are timing their purchases and the conscious effort among a sizeable minority to ‘Buy American’.”

The firm’s latest Home Delivery Survey, conducted between May 31 and June 3, found that online purchases for home delivery declined sharply year over year:

Grocery stood out as a rare bright spot, with demand holding steady.

The slowdown is being driven by more than just softening demand; tariffs are fundamentally changing how consumers shop. According to the survey:

The trade disruption is also prompting some consumers to seek domestic alternatives, with 1 in 5 (20%) actively choosing to "Buy American."

“Tariffs are materially influencing consumer behavior, leading to both timing shifts and a potential reshoring of demand,” Considine said. “Retailers may need to reassess sourcing and pricing strategies to remain competitive.”

Retailers are also contending with rising return volumes and mounting delivery expenses. Nearly three-quarters of executives surveyed said per-package shipping costs have increased. As a result, many e-commerce operators are tightening return and delivery policies:

Despite the tightening, consumer expectations for free shipping and next-day delivery remain strong — a continued friction point for retailers seeking to protect margins.

“Carriers are feeling the pinch as shoppers reconsider and shippers diversify to lower costs,” said Marc Iampieri, Global Co-Lead of AlixPartners’ Logistics & Transportation practice. “Optimizing your distribution network is the big lever for retailers, and they are pulling it hard, adding more pressure on the carriers.”

As the tariff-driven headwinds continue to reshape the online retail landscape, companies across the supply chain may need to adapt quickly or risk falling behind. For now, the data signals a clear message: the e-commerce boom of the last decade is meeting serious resistance.

To read the full report, click here.