Stock market today: Indian benchmark indices are headed for a gap down start on Monday amid the rising geopolitical concerns in the Middle East between Iran and Israel with the United States also getting involved. The US struck three nuclear sites in Iran, and it could retaliate against the US by closing the Strait of Hormuz and attacking US military facilities in the Gulf.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 101.70 points, or 0.40 per cent, lower at 25,010, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Monday. hares slipped in Asia on Monday amid escalating Middle-East concerns. KOSPI tumbled two-third a per cent, while Nikkei and Hang Seng shed half a per cent each.

Market anxiety peaked following speculation of US involvement in the Middle East conflict, which threatened to escalate the situation into a broader crisis, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments. "Diplomatic restraint and a decision by global leaders to delay major interventions for two weeks helped soothe investor nerves, allowing markets to stabilize," he said.

US stocks ended mixed on Friday, with investors on edge over the Iran-Israel conflict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 35.16 points, or 0.08 per cent, to 42,206.82, the S&P 500 tab lost 13.03 points, or 0.22 per cent, to 5,967.84 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 98.86 points, or 0.51 per cent, to 19,447.41

Oil prices briefly hit five-month high on Monday. Brent was up a relatively restrained 2.7 per cent at $79.12 a barrel, while US crude rose 2.8 per cent to $75.98. Elsewhere in commodity markets, gold edged down 0.1 per cent to $3,363 an ounce.

The US dollar firmed slightly on Monday as anxious investors sought safety. The dollar index was seen 0.12 per cent higher at 99.037. Rate sensitive Bitcoin dropped nearly a per cent but managed to hold above the $100,000 mark.

Global cues will remain the dominant force, with a focus on geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, US economic data and US Fed commentary, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. Any signs of easing US inflation or a dovish tone from the Fed may further fuel the rally. Investors will also monitor monsoon progress, monthly expiry, crude oil price movements, and FII flows.

The Indian rupee and government bonds are poised to face pressure this week following a US strike on Iran, raising concerns of higher oil prices and potential retaliation that could deepen the conflict in the Middle East. The rupee had closed at 86.5850 against the U.S. dollar on Friday, down 0.6 per cent on the week.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 7,940.70 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained sellers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,049.88 crore on a net-net basis.

The trend of FPIs experienced a reversal in April and demonstrated considerable strengthening in May, characterised by positive inflows. The inflows recorded in May represented the highest level observed in eight months, signifying a resurgence of interest from foreign investors in the Indian markets, said Vipul Bhowar, Senior Director of Listed Investments at Waterfield Advisors.
 

Nifty outlook

Nifty has immediate support at 25,000 and 24,800, which could offer strong buying opportunities for traders on dips. On the upside, resistance is seen at 25,200 and 25,300, with the latter acting as a key hurdle, said Choice Broking. "A sustained breakout above 25,300 could trigger a bullish rally, potentially targeting 25,500 and 25,700 in the coming weeks," he said.

Nifty moved up sharply after three days of consolidation, resuming its short-term rally. The index has reclaimed the 21-day EMA, which could provide further momentum for an upward move, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "Support is now placed at 24,850, and the index remains a ‘buy on dips’ as long as it holds above this level," he said.

A strong support lies in the 24,850-24800 zone, a previously tested demand area. A breakdown below the mentioned support zone may lead to a decline toward 24,600, the recent weekly low, said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group. "The immediate resistance is seen at 25,250; a decisive breakout above this level could trigger a rally toward 25,500."
 

Nifty Bank index

Bank Nifty formed a bull candle with a higher high and higher low and a firm closing above the 56,000 levels. The index maintains a positive bias and heads towards 56,700 and 57,400 levels in the coming weeks, Bajaj Broking said. "The immediate bias remains positive above 55,500 levels. The daily 14 periods RSI has generated a buy signal thus validates positive bias in the index."

Nifty Bank bounced from the rising trendline support, offering a buoyant reversal setup. It broke above a short-term falling trendline, suggesting an end to the recent corrective phase and a likely resumption of the broader uptrend, said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities. The support levels remain at 55,800, while resistance is placed at 56,700, he said.