Among the fold of state governors elected on the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Governor Sanwo-Olu is the metaphorical first son of the Presidency. The Lagos chief executive, being the governor of the home state of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is envied for his closeness to the number one citizen, and indeed the first family.

Consequently, whenever the APC governors ask whether the first son is aware of a meeting, those with unlearned ears will wonder what Seyi Tinubu has to do with the Progressive Governors’ meeting.

But, not long ago, that special reverence gave way to snide remarks suggestive of an Absalom, who attempted to dethrone his father as King. Governor Sanwo-Olu’s attempt to play leader of Lagos State politics put him at cross purposes with his papa, when he encouraged the State Assembly to do the needful if they are sufficiently equipped with facts to support their belief that Speaker Mudashiru Obasa has exceeded his usefulness with the gavel.

The governor may have forgotten that the intricacy of Nigerian politics presupposes that the godfather never sleeps. So, believing that hemmed up in the Presidential Villa, his godfather is saddled with weightier matters and therefore would not bother about little affairs of state politics.

That was where his problems began. His relationship with President Tinubu soured to the extent that he became an unwelcome guest at his home in the Villa. As couriered emissaries pleaded with the Jagaban to look benevolently on his first son, the question on the lips of many politicians was: What does the future hold for Sanwo-Olu?

Some old politicians in Lagos State said in low tones, if only Sanwo-Olu had reflected on the experience of some of his predecessors, he would have been circumspect and done things differently. Lagos, the Centre of Excellence, is not immune to the blight of Nigeria’s politics, where governors fall out of favour with their political benefactors and get cast into the wilderness of political oblivion.

For instance, former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode, Sanwo-Olu’s immediate predecessor, is a case in point. After a bitter falling out with the President, Ambode’s political career was all but extinguished. The question is: will Sanwo-Olu suffer a similar fate?

Based on ugly tradition, governors often have a preferred candidate to succeed them, someone who they believe to be loyal and trustworthy throughout their tenure. However, with Sanwo-Olu’s obviously strained relationship with President Tinubu, the political godfather in Lagos, it’s unclear whether he will have the opportunity to anoint his own successor.

The President’s influence in Lagos politics is still significant, and it’s obvious that he will have a say in who succeeds Sanwo-Olu even though he has fulfilled his lifelong political ambition.

Several factors contributed to the strained relationship between Tinubu and Sanwo-Olu. The President was reportedly dissatisfied with Sanwo-Olu’s role in the impeachment of the Lagos House of Assembly Speaker, Mudashiru Obasa, and his subsequent directive for Obasa’s reinstatement further strained the relationship.

Further, Tinubu’s loss to Labour Party’s Peter Obi in Lagos during the 2023 presidential elections has also been cited as a point of contention, with many believing Sanwo-Olu didn’t exert enough effort in supporting his bid.

Many had suspected Sanwo-Olu’s moves for reconciliation or a bold effort to walk himself back to the good books of the president when he criticised former governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, over comments he made about Nigeria during an appearance at Johns Hopkins University in the United States.

The governor’s attack on Obi was described as a desperate and ill-advised political manoeuvre to shield himself from the crumbling walls of his own political misfortunes. Others, however, said his approach also exposed a familiar, worn-out strategy increasingly deployed by embattled politicians seeking favour from their bosses to win political points.

Sanwo-Olu’s succession plan or alternative political future path could be to follow in the footsteps of other former governors who have transitioned to the Senate after their tenure. But, with his current issues with President Tinubu, it’s uncertain whether he will be given the opportunity to fly the APC flag in any electoral contest.

The President’s grip on the party’s machinery in Lagos is still strong, and it’s likely that he will dictate who gets to run under the APC banner across the zones in the state.

As the political landscape continues to evolve, one thing is clear: Sanwo-Olu’s next move will be crucial in determining his future. Will his reconciliation attempt with President Tinubu be fruitful or futile?

Pundits believe that the future of Governor Sanwo-Olu is uncertain, and his options are limited. Whether he will be able to anoint his own successor, transition to the Senate, or fade into political oblivion like his predecessor Ambode remains to be seen.

It is obvious that the President’s influence will play a significant role in determining Sanwo-Olu’s fate. As the political drama unfolds, Lagos State and the nation will be watching with bated breath to see what the future holds for Governor Sanwo-Olu.

Meanwhile, the opposition parties in Lagos State are keeping a close eye on the developments within the APC, waiting to pounce on any lapses or divisions that may arise.

With the APC’s internal conflicts and power struggles, the opposition parties may see an opportunity to capitalise on the ruling party’s weaknesses and potentially unseat it in the next election.

However, will they be able to put their own house in order and present a united front to challenge the APC’s dominance in the state.

For decades, the APC and its predecessor parties have held sway over Lagos State, with no opposition party ever managing to win the governorship. However, with the current dynamics within the APC, the opposition parties may sense an opportunity to break the mould and make a serious challenge for the top job. Parties like the PDP, LP, and others will likely be strategising and positioning themselves to take advantage of any weaknesses in the APC’s armour.

Analysts believe that if the opposition parties can put aside their differences and present a strong, united front, they may just have a chance to upset the APC’s dominance in Lagos State.

Yet, going by the APC’s internal conflicts and power struggles, the opposition parties may be able to capitalise on the ruling party’s weaknesses and potentially win the next election. Only time will tell if they can seize this opportunity and bring about a new era of politics in Lagos State.

Speaking with The Guardian, a political analyst, Bankole Egbeyemi, stated that the rift between President Tinubu and Governor Sanwo-Olu could have a ripple effect on the APC’s prospects in future elections.

According to him, if the party’s leaders are seen as divided, it may erode voter confidence and lead to a decline in support, adding that the party’s internal dynamics will likely be impacted, with party members potentially taking sides, leading to factionalism and possible defections. “This could weaken the party’s overall strength and cohesion,” he said.

He added: “The APC’s momentum and progress in Lagos State might be halted or reversed due to the rift. The party’s ability to implement its agenda and deliver on its promises could be compromised, affecting its reputation and electoral prospects. It’s crucial for both leaders to find a resolution that benefits the party and the state, which might involve dialogue, compromise, and a willingness to put aside differences.

“By prioritising the state’s interests, both leaders can work towards finding a solution that promotes stability and progress. This might require them to put the state’s needs above their personal or political interests. The long-term consequences of the rift could be severe if not addressed, and it’s essential for both leaders to think about the future and work towards a resolution that benefits the state and the party in the long run.”

Also speaking, a renowned political analyst, Prof. Akinpelu Adeleke, stated that the fissure between President Tinubu and Governor Sanwo-Olu is a manifestation of the inherent contradictions within the APC’s Lagos State chapter.

According to him, the tension is not merely a personal issue but a symptom of deeper structural problems that have been festering since the party’s inception.

“The APC’s internal dynamics are complex, with various factions and interests vying for power and influence. The rift between Tinubu and Sanwo-Olu may be a reflection of these underlying tensions, which could have significant implications for the party’s future.”

According to him, if left unchecked, the rift could compromise the party’s chances in future elections, adding that APC’s ability to present a united front and mobilise support will be crucial in determining its electoral prospects.

“A divided party, on the other hand, may struggle to convince voters of its credibility and capacity to govern effectively.

“To mitigate this, both leaders must engage in constructive dialogue, prioritising the party’s and state’s interests over personal agendas. This will require a willingness to listen, compromise, and find common ground. By putting aside their differences and working towards a shared goal, Tinubu and Sanwo-Olu can help to stabilise the party and ensure its continued relevance in Lagos State politics.”

Lagos APC spokesperson, Mogaji Oluseye Oladejo, downplayed reports of tension between President Tinubu and Governor Sanwo-Olu, stating that he is not aware of any such rift.

According to Oladejo, the party’s current focus is on the July 12 Local Government elections, and other issues will be addressed in due time.

When asked about potential implications for the state and the governor’s future, Oladejo stressed that the party is not presently engaged in discussions about internal conflicts or aspirants for the senatorial ticket.

He maintained that it is too early to speculate on such matters, and the party’s priority remains winning the upcoming local government elections.

“At the moment, our focus is on the immediate goal of securing victories in the forthcoming local government polls. Our aim is to strengthen our position in Lagos State and set the stage for future electoral successes.”