Nvidia (NVDA) has demonstrated a consistent trend of exceeding Wall Street's expectations for both earnings and revenue over the past two years. In the last eight quarters, the company's earnings per share (EPS) surpassed projections by an average of 9.8%, while quarterly revenue beat forecasts by an average of 8.9%. This performance significantly outpaces that of S&P 500 companies, which, according to Bloomberg data, reported earnings and sales approximately 5% and 1.3% above Wall Street's expectations, respectively, during the same timeframe. Notably, Nvidia's revenue has exceeded forecasts in each of the past eight quarters, with only a single instance of an earnings miss occurring in the second quarter of its fiscal year 2025.

Looking ahead, analysts like Stifel's Ruben Roy and Bank of America's Vivek Arya anticipate that Nvidia's April quarter earnings results, corresponding to its fiscal 2026 first quarter, will likely show a "modest" beat, surpassing Wall Street's projections. This optimism persists despite potential impacts from a newly enacted ban on exports of its H20 chips to China. The analysts believe that strong demand for the company's Hopper and Blackwell chips will outweigh these challenges. Wall Street analysts, based on Bloomberg consensus data, estimate Nvidia will report an adjusted EPS of $0.88 on revenue of $43.3 billion for the quarter. This would represent a significant increase from the adjusted EPS of $0.61 on revenue of $26 billion reported in the same period last year, as highlighted by Yahoo Finance's Dan Howley.

In a note to investors on May 22, Stifel analyst Ruben Roy reiterated expectations for "largely inline results and outlook despite the negative top-line impact related to recently disclosed H20 restrictions." He attributed this positive outlook to "demand for H200, coupled with initial GB200 ramps." Nvidia's H200 chips represent its second-generation Hopper graphics processing units (GPUs), while its GB200 servers are powerful systems containing 72 of its latest Blackwell GPUs.

In February, Nvidia's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue also surpassed Wall Street's expectations. During this period, the chipmaker officially announced that it had achieved full-scale production of its newest Blackwell GPUs and had generated $11 billion from these advanced AI chips. However, despite the strong report, Nvidia stock experienced an 8.5% decline following the announcement. This was primarily due to its outlook for the first-quarter gross margin coming in lower than market estimates.

Options traders, as tracked by Bloomberg, are forecasting a potential share price movement of as much as 7.4%, either up or down, following Nvidia's upcoming results announcement on Wednesday after the bell. The stock has faced some turbulence in 2025. Shares saw a significant plunge in January following concerns about demand for its AI chips, sparked by the emergence of a new, cheaper AI model from Chinese startup DeepSeek. Another decline occurred in April as broader market concerns related to trade policies impacted stock market sentiment.