When Trump began his first term in 2017, he was new to Washington and its ways. And he did not have control over the Republican Party. This time around, he is more experienced, and his hold over the party may be stronger. Most importantly, he has a stronger mandate. Apart from his convincing victory, Republicans control both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Supporters hope this ‘governing trifecta’ will make it easier for him to push through his policies. What, however, remains unchanged is his unpredictability in policymaking and transactional way of dealing with friends and foes.

He has spoken about many priorities which, in his opinion, will “fix everything in the country" and restore America to greatness. He has threatened fresh tariffs to set right the trade balance and make American manufacturing competitive. A 10% duty on all imports, 25% for those from Mexico and Canada and a 60% for those from China. These tariffs will also fund his proposed tax cuts. He has also promised strong action, including massive deportations, of illegal immigrants. And he has enlisted America’s most successful businessman Elon Musk to cut the flab and improve the efficiency of the US government.

The message coming out from Trump’s transition team is that his initial days as president will see a flurry of executive orders with as many as 100 set to be signed in the first few days in office. They could be in the areas of immigration, border security, deportation, trade tariffs and energy production where he is likely to dismantle predecessor Joe Biden’s policies.

India is on a much better footing, compared with many other nations. The relationship between the two nations was good during Trump 1.0. In fact, Indian officials say India and the US were close to striking a trade deal. Trump’s personal chemistry with Prime Minister Narendra Modi also helped. Ties between the two countries deepened in defence, trade and counterterrorism during 2017-2021. However, experts warn India should watch out for Trump’s tendency to “flatter his enemies and unsettle his friends".

The risks are from the indirect fallout of Trump’s action. If he imposes high tariff on Chinese imports, there could be a trade war which would slow global economic growth and hurt Indian exports. Tariffs on Chinese goods will also result in them flooding other markets, such as India, at cheap prices hurting domestic industry. The H1B visa, used extensively by Indian IT companies, is in the crosshairs of Trump supporters. Musk supports it but many Republican voters want it ended, saying it benefits Indian workers.

Read more: Trump’s tariffs: How India can escape a dumping flood from China

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