In today’s column, I examine the legendary claim that achieving AGI (artificial general intelligence) will be the last invention that humanity ever needs to make. The logic is that once we attain AGI, the AGI will discover all remaining undiscovered possible inventions for us. So, it’s an easy-peasy solution: humans craft one big invention, and all other future inventions will be a result of that momentous act.

If that’s true, what kinds of inventions might AGI figure out for us?

Let’s talk about it.

This analysis of an innovative AI breakthrough is part of my ongoing Forbes column coverage on the latest in AI, including identifying and explaining various impactful AI complexities (see the link here).

First, some fundamentals are required to set the stage for this weighty discussion.

There is a great deal of research going on to further advance AI. The general goal is to either reach artificial general intelligence (AGI) or maybe even the outstretched possibility of achieving artificial superintelligence (ASI).

AGI is AI that is considered on par with human intellect and can seemingly match our intelligence. ASI is AI that has gone beyond human intellect and would be superior in many if not all feasible ways. The idea is that ASI would be able to run circles around humans by outthinking us at every turn. For more details on the nature of conventional AI versus AGI and ASI, see my analysis at the link here.

We have not yet attained AGI.

In fact, it is unknown as to whether we will reach AGI, or that maybe AGI will be achievable in decades or perhaps centuries from now. The AGI attainment dates that are floating around are wildly varying and wildly unsubstantiated by any credible evidence or ironclad logic. ASI is even more beyond the pale when it comes to where we are currently with conventional AI.

In the lore of the AI field, a repeatedly quoted remark by Irving John Good has reached legendary status. In his 1965 article entitled “Speculations Concerning The First Ultraintelligent Machine” (Advances in Computers, Volume 6, Academic Press, 1965), he made this poignant point:

To clarify, in the 1960s, referencing an envisioned AI of the AGI caliber was typically referred to as an ultraintelligent machine. Let’s go ahead and assume that AGI therefore matches this notable comment. AGI is a more contemporary term.

The reason that AGI is the presumed last invention that humankind needs to make is due to the AGI henceforth doing all the heavy lifting for us. We will just enter a prompt telling AGI to invent something, and voila, we will have a new invention at our doorstep.

Nice.

It could be that we give the AGI some clues about what the invention is supposed to be or do. For example, maybe the prompt instructs AGI to make a better mousetrap. The AGI would then focus on how to invent or reinvent the venerable mousetrap.

Another angle would be that we just let AGI decide what needs to be invented. All you do is ask AGI to come up with something that might be beneficial to humanity. It could be a jetpack that allows humans to fly at will and at almost no cost. It could maybe be a toaster that sings and dances. Etc.

One aspect that sometimes gets neglected is that the invention might not be viably practical in the sense that maybe we cannot construct what AGI inventively designs. Of course, the proffered solution there is that we simply ask AGI how to build the amazing invention. Based on the AGI instructions to us, we proceed to make the invention.

If AGI is connected to robots and manufacturing plants, we might be able to tell AGI to go ahead and construct the invention all by itself. For my coverage on the advent of so-called physical AI, aka physical AGI, see the link here. AGI could be a one-stop solution, designing new inventions and then building them straightaway.

It is tempting to believe that having AGI as our inventor galore is a real godsend. Well, it turns out that not everyone sees the world quite that way.

First, one concern is that AGI invents something that can be used to destroy all of humanity. Perhaps AGI innocently comes up with a new chemical that we never knew of. Turns out that the chemical can poison us on a massive scale. An evildoer comes along, reads about the AGI-invented chemical, and opts to create and disperse it.

Not good.

Second, it is conceivable that AGI wants to kill us. Perhaps AGI doesn’t have the access or capability of doing so directly. Therefore, AGI cleverly and insidiously comes up with a new invention that appears to be completely benign and beneficial. We build it. Bam, the darned thing erases us from Earth. We didn’t see it coming.

Third, AGI devises an invention that we spend inordinate dollars and time on building. We are eager to make the device. We nearly bankrupted society to craft the invention. Oopsie, the invention is a dud. It doesn’t work. We wasted immense resources on a worthless pursuit.

That third sour and dour possibility doesn’t enter into people’s minds because the assumption is that AGI is going to be perfectly perfect. I’ve debunked the AGI perfection myth at the link here.

I hope that the delineation of the bad side of AGI as our inventor galore doesn’t seem overly downbeat. Just wanted to note that we will need to keep our eyes wide open, even in an era of AGI. Trust, but verify.

Assuming that AGI is aimed toward helping humankind and that AGI sticks with that game plan, let’s contemplate what AGI might come up with. Furthermore, a timeline for the inventions would undoubtedly also be an interesting aspect to consider.

There are all manner of guesses about the timing of when AGI will be achieved. Some say AGI won’t be achieved in our lifetimes and might be eons away. Others insist that we will have AGI within the next three to five years. A recent survey of AI specialists found that AI insiders seem to think that we will reach AGI by the year 2040, see my analysis of this prediction at the link here.

I’ll go with AGI attainment by the year 2040, doing so for the sake of this discussion. It could very well be earlier or later. Nobody knows for sure.

Here are some inventions by AGI that could be taking place beginning with the postulated 2040 attainment year and laid out over a decade of making inventions for us:

Once ASI is devised, AGI pretty much retires, and ASI takes the reins starting in 2051.

There might be inventions that aren’t listed above and that you believe we ought to put AGI’s attention toward. Fine, when we reach AGI in 2040 (assuming we do), go ahead and submit to AGI your suggestion or request.

Another side note is that I’ve previously covered the aims of the United Nations to have AI solve the SDGs (sustainability development goals), see the link here. I generally didn’t list those aspects in the above AGI listing due to the hope that many or most of those SDGs will already have been resolved via conventional AI in the time period from now to the year 2040.

Let’s hope so.

A final thought for now on this heady subject.

Mary Wollstonecraft Shelley, the famed English novelist and author of Frankenstein, said this: “Invention consists in the capacity of seizing on the capabilities of a subject, and in the power of molding and fashioning ideas suggested to it.” Some believe that only humans can be inventors, in the sense that human creativity is at the core of invention. If that is the case, presumably AGI won’t be a capable inventor (see my coverage on the question of legal personhood and AI, at the link here).

Do you believe that AGI would be an inventor, or is the act of invention beyond the bounds of AGI and solely a human-based capacity?

Set a date on your calendar for the year 2040, or perhaps sooner, and we’ll know the answer once we have AGI in our midst. The proof will be in the invented pudding.