Two years after taking the reins, fuel subsidy removal, foreign exchange market liberalisation, politics of consolidation, and inflation hallmark the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, but the political class sees things differently – Tinubu has done so well to retrieve the country from the brink. In gratitude to him, there is an ongoing gale of defections to the All Progressives Congress (APC) and endorsements for a second term, even when he is yet to conclude the first. As this happens, Nigerians are in the lurch, lamenting their fate. GEOFF IYATSE, SEYE OLUMIDE, LAWRENCE NJOKU, LEO SOBECHI, ANN GODWIN, ADAMU ABUH and TINA AGOSI TODO report.

In the last 24 months, something akin to deep despondency enveloped the country and left in its wake misery, anguish, and pain. While many became unwilling penny-pinchers, a groundswell of citizens was distraught and at sea regarding where their next meal would come from.

It was in this topsy-turvy situation that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s job approval rating from a couple of quarters generated an awful din that is yet to abate. Expectedly, findings from the latest poll have drawn the ire of many, who are still surviving on a shoestring budget.

Even more interesting is the fact that, for the first time in a while, apart from Tinubu’s die-hard supporters, data released by NOI Polls for April 2025 suggest a notable, albeit gradual, rise in the percentage of Nigerians who believe in Tinubu’s capacity to deliver on the job.

NOI Polls data from a couple of months back indicated a low point in February 2024, where Tinubu’s approval rating dipped to 11 per cent. That sharply contrasts with the latest data, which reflects potential positive shifts in public sentiment.

Indeed, in the first few months of the administration, the cost of living rose just as the purchasing power of citizens plummeted. The dour outlook of the administration was accentuated by the belief in many quarters that the subsidy removal was well thought through, even as criticisms continue to trail the floatation of the naira despite the nation’s mono-product and import-dependent economic status.

However, as complaints against the government’s determination to expand the tax net gained momentum, the prices of the premium motor spirit began to slide, thereby improving the cost of commuting and transportation of food products.

It was against the background of the incremental improvement in the prices of goods, especially daily use products, that the global rating agency, Moody’s Investors Service, recently upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer rating from Caa1 to B3, with a Stable Outlook.

The rating was noted as “a significant vote of confidence in the country’s economic direction and ongoing reform agenda and reflects growing international recognition of Nigeria’s progress in stabilising its macroeconomic environment.”

It is as if Tinubu’s courage has seen him through the thick and thin of the perceived impromptu policy formulation and implementation. This is so because, as Moody’s findings show, “a more resilient fiscal position, stronger external accounts, and the government’s demonstrated commitment to macroeconomic and structural reforms.”

With his choices, which include unifying the foreign exchange market, removing fuel subsidies, increasing non-oil revenue, and restoring credibility to monetary policy through the Central Bank of Nigeria’s actions beginning to earn plaudits, an overtly relieved Tinubu, in response to the Moody’s favourable rating, spoke of his resolve to maintain prudent economic management while fostering inclusive growth.

“This upgrade signals to global investors and partners that Nigeria is back on a path of responsibility, reform, and renewed credibility. It underscores our unwavering commitment to transparency, discipline, and prosperity for all Nigerians,” he stated.

Invigorated by the positive outlook, the Minister of Information and Orientation, Mohammed Idris, while noting that the voices are audibly uniting in further support of a man of vision and courage, called for national unity to enhance national security.

He stated: “No preceding government has ever achieved what the Tinubu administration has achieved in two years. First, the courage to vanquish the monster of oil subsidy and the forex racket, and then massive road infrastructure, an unprecedented students’ loans scheme, and the CreditCorp, indeed, policies that are re-stimulating confidence in our young population.

“After a stormy start, food prices are falling, even as we are stemming the tide of insecurity, while the impact of governance, for the first time in decades, is making a new headway through the local government autonomy, the creation of ministries for regional development, and the biggest boost in agriculture – the creation of the Federal Ministry of Livestock Development.”

Cursory look at Tinubu’s halfway mark
“SUBSIDY is gone.” As those words thundered from the mouth of the newly minted President Tinubu, on May 29, 2023, the pronouncement marked the beginning of yet another socio-political vista for Nigeria.

That removal of the infamous fuel subsidy also introduced a new twist to the management of the country’s economy, just as the already ultra-high inflation rate received a strong push, and rose from 22.2 per cent as of April 2023, to 32.5 per cent. It was only a Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebasing in December 2024 that succeeded in pulling it back to 23.71 per cent in April 2025.

Even at a multi-decade high, most Nigerians believed that the official headline inflation underestimated the price crisis that households battled against last year. While this year has seen an easing in prices, especially of food items, the living conditions of Nigerians have declined so significantly in less than two years that returning the country to the May 2023 baselines is nothing short of mere fantasy.

The baseline commodity (fuel) has increased by about 400 per cent since 2023, escalating transportation and other derivative costs. Today, Nigerians spend as much as 200 per cent of what they incurred in May 2023 commuting, leaving them with insignificant resources for other basic needs.

Sadly, incomes have not increased sufficiently to catch up with the soaring cost of living. The price-wage spiral, in principle, is an antidote to runaway inflation and plummeting purchasing power. But when labour demand is less than supply, labour becomes a buyer’s market, giving employers an advantage. Hence, wages have been sticky upward. This is worsened by low purchasing power and declining consumer demand. Last year, inventory across the manufacturing space rose to N1.4 trillion.

Inflation, naira depreciation as new taxes
THE price crisis in the polity caused a stalemate in the minimum-wage setting negotiation last year, with organised labour demanding an over N600,000 floor. Parties to the negotiation settled for N70,000, eventually, on the condition that the fuel pump price would be left at N500 per litre. Ignoring the condition, fuel prices rose by over 100 per cent before recent marginal reductions. Still, adjusted for fuel, the minimum wage has dropped to N36,400 since June last year when the new law was passed. Also, the inflation-adjusted wage floor is N53,300.

Even in its nominal value, N70,000 can only fill the fuel tank of a Toyota Camry, a car that has become the definition of Nigeria’s average class. An employee who works in Victoria Island, the country’s financial hub, but lives in Mainland Lagos, may need to fill up three times a month or spend a total of N210,000 on fuel costs.

Many Nigerian banks pay between N200,000 and N800,000 for different categories of junior to intermediate employees, while contract staff earn less. Besides oil and gas, workers in other industries in the service sector earn far less than bankers, underpinning the pressure on the private sector, which is touted to be more rewarded, to keep a decent living.

Power cost has added to the rising pressure, with energy poverty increasing the number of social upheavals Nigerians contend with daily. Shortly after Tinubu’s inauguration, the cost of electricity was reviewed upward. The country has experienced multiple adjustments as the administration aggressively pursues the full enforcement of the Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO), which will eventually lead to power subsidy removal. Whereas the government still subsidises power consumption, the World Bank in its Nigeria Development Update (NDU) said that the country would need to add off subsidy payments to wean itself from the pressure and free funds for other infrastructure investments to support faster economic growth.

Even with the subsidy still in place, manufacturers were arbitrarily moved to the premium consumption category last year without any improvement in supply, thereby triggering outrage. With diesel still selling above N1000 per litre, alternative power is not cheap either. Last year, Nigerian manufacturers spent a total of N1.11 trillion on alternative energy sources, a 42.3 per cent increase from the N781.68 billion that they spent in 2023.

Tinubu will also need to double down on power investment to achieve a significant improvement in the performance of the national grid. Power efficiency was a cardinal promise he made before and after his election. But capacity utilisation remains below 5,000 megawatts. With an incident rate of an average of one per month experienced last year, the administration has not shown that it has a solution to the incessant grid collapse.

Two years into the administration, Nigerians are earnestly awaiting a game-changing policy – one that would revolutionise power reminisces of what the administration of Olusegun Obasanjo did in the telecommunication sector. In the meantime, the government keeps up with its routines and scores poorly on how efficiently it even manages those mundane things.

Indeed, the inflation concern also feeds on the weak naira. About a month into Tinubu’s administration, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), led by an interim governor, effected the much-awaited FX market liberalisation, adopting the willing buyer, willing seller model. The policy, which was believed to have been imposed by the executive, undermining the independence of the monetary authority, triggered a run on the naira and a buy-the-dollar spree. While the naira has regained some stability, at the current rate, it has lost 71 per cent of its exchange value to the decision, which many economists described as ill-timed and suicidal.

Apart from the pass-through effect of a weaker naira on prices, the prolonged and steep fall has robbed the country of its position as the biggest economy in Africa. Apart from sliding to the fourth position, Nigeria’s economy is less than half that of South Africa, a country with less than a quarter of its population.

Tinubu’s extraversion, gains of FX liberalisation
THE pro-market reform – subsidy removal, FX liberalisation, and ongoing tax reforms – are tied to the president’s extraversion economic posturing. This, on its own, comes with pains and gains.

The World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and their “affiliate” bodies are happy with the country and ready to give it a good credit score. On the other hand, the market being too infertile to soak up the pressure has become a major burden on struggling Nigerians.

Be that as it may, the FX reform came with its gains. First, the CBN cleared the infamous outstanding FX backlogs, a decision that increased the country’s sovereign rating and increased market confidence. The rising confidence has substantially boosted liquidity in the FX market and reduced the extreme volatility experienced in 2023 to the Third Quarter of 2024.

In substance, the capital inflow has improved tremendously. For instance, in the first half of last year, capital importation surged by 177 per cent year-on-year to $5.98 billion. The growth was driven by portfolio investment, which was up by 360 per cent.

Running into this year, portfolio investors’ appetite for Nigerian assets remained upbeat. As of March, the pre-2015 dominance of the Nigerian stock market returned with foreigners holding 60 per cent of the market turnover, even as projections remain positive. Rising foreign capital inflow means less pressure on the naira, a stronger local currency, more jobs, a slower speed of inflation, and a healthier economy, which Tinubu promised to push to $1 trillion by 2030.

Nigeria has recalibrated its unemployment methodology, which magically brought the level from 33.3 per cent in 2022 to less than five per cent, consequently discounting the misery index, a general metric that measures the general living condition. The recent recalibration has masked the original misery index, which some economists said could be among the worst globally, especially with the recent spike in the cost of living.

Like vultures, political elite feast on bleeding Nigeria
AMIDST the rising burden on households, the political class that is feeding fat on the ruins has witnessed the triumphant cohabitation between the executive and the legislature.

The upper legislative chamber has shown considerable disinterest in playing its role of checks and balances on the executive. That fact became common knowledge when the president presented his first appropriation, supplementary spending list.

In a childish display of sycophancy and political patronage, federal lawmakers engaged in the travesty of singing the president’s electioneering slogan instead of the country’s national anthem.

“On your mandate, we shall stand, on your mandate, we shall stand, on your mandate, Bola, on your mandate, on your mandate we shall stand,” the legislators chorused to the shock of the entire nation.

That readiness by the Senate to kowtow to the presidency further manifested during the screening of cabinet nominees, which the president decided to parcel out in batches. The high point of this lethargic submission was the contrast between the handling of the nomination of a former Kaduna State governor, Nasir el-Rufai, and the current Minister of Aviation, Festus Keyamo.

Although the lawmakers remembered Keyamo’s sins during the preceding 9th National Assembly, he was forgiven after the Presidency’s intervention with back-channel communication, propelling his plea for mitigation of the legislative anger.

However, in the case of the former Kaduna State governor, it was not so. The Senate mustered an unusual courage to block el-Rufai’s confirmation, citing negative security reports. Knowing that the nominee was at one time a minister in charge of the Federal Capital Territory, there was an obvious suspicion of a last-minute change by the President as the entire saga played out.

Such presidential influence was to play out once again when the Senate passed the revised national anthem with the speed of lightning. The minimum wage saga also threw up concerns that the cohabitation between the two arms of government was not to the benefit of the citizens.

That was even before the scandals began to pour in, including the purchase of exotic sports utility vehicles (SUVs) and the latest sexual harassment and influence-peddling allegations.

It was entirely striped for the National Assembly. For instance, as of the last few weeks, the Senate passed the regional development commissions for the six geopolitical zones, in a move seen as a soft restructuring alongside the local council fiscal autonomy handed over to the country earlier.

Also, the House of Representatives has considered no fewer than 1,059 bills in tandem with key legislative priorities, namely strengthening good governance, improving national security, law reform, economic growth and development, social sector reform and development, inclusion and open parliament, foreign policy and climate change/ environmental challenges.

The House easily refers to the passage of the tax reform bills aimed at improving revenue generation, simplifying compliance, and encouraging investment as a major achievement within the last two years.

Awaiting first completed South-East project
WHILE President Tinubu addressed the South-East during a zonal rally held at the Michael Okpara Square, Enugu by his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) to solicit support for his presidential aspiration on January 12, 2023, he promised to work with the people of the region to make life more meaningful for them.

He went further to assure them that he would make the region an industrial hub for the country, leveraging the prowess of her people in trade and commerce.

Elsewhere, the president had promised to tackle erosion, road and railway infrastructure, boost the economy of the region, and create access for the movement of goods and services.

Two years into his four-year administration, however, Tinubu has yet to complete a single project among his promises in the region. The Enugu-Port Harcourt Highway, the Aba-Owerri Road, the Ebonyi-Calabar Highway, and the Enugu-Makurdi-Kogi Highway have either been awarded or are yet to be awarded. While actual work has taken off on some of the roads, nothing is happening on others.

Work is yet to begin on the Eastern Rail Line, which connects Port Harcourt, through the South-East to Makurdi, which he inherited from the last administration and promised to complete. This is one project that is in the heart of Ndigbo. But he had signed into law the South-East Development Commission (SEDC) as an interventionist agency. The Commission had also taken off after he nominated and inaugurated its members.

There is also an ongoing N40 billion methanol plant at Akpugo, in Enugu State, expected to address many of Nigeria’s and Africa’s industrial needs, as well as an N60 billion Solar PV project, for solar panel production, which is part of the key development efforts of the president in the South-East region.

He had, however, visited Anambra and Enugu states to commission projects established by the governments of both states since he assumed office. President of Njiko Igbo, Okechukwu Obioha, while reacting to the inability of the Tinubu-led administration to complete any project in the region in two years, stated: “It is part of the marginalisation by the APC”. He added that “the region does not expect much from his government, going by the votes he received in 2023 in the South-East.”

South-South yet to see economy-boosting projects
GOING by the campaign promises of President Tinubu, especially his pledge to assist farmers through better policies that promote productivity and ensure better income, modernise and expand public infrastructure so that the rest of the economy can grow at an optimal rate among many others, one would expect that within these two years of Tinubu’s government, the economy would have improved and usher in a turn around.

Insecurity in parts of the region has exacerbated youths’ restiveness. Among Tinubu’s eight promises were to generate, transmit, and distribute sufficient, affordable electricity to give the people of the region power to lighten their lives, their homes, and their very dreams, but regrettably, the region has been subjected to an epileptic power supply. Bayelsa State, for instance, stayed without light for over three months.

Unemployment has increased, contrary to the president’s sixth promise to embolden and support young people and women by harnessing emerging sectors such as the digital economy. Regrettably, instead of reviewing strategies to address the challenges, the President and his team are campaigning for a second tenure.

Reacting, the National Publicity Secretary of Ijaw National Congress (INC), Ezonebi Oyakemeagbegha, said: “Times are worse compared to even the former President Muhammadu Buhari’s government, which is rated the worst government ever in Nigeria’s history.”

However, in Cross River State, the Tinubu-led government is said to have initiated projects in education and economic development. One of the projects is the commencement of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, a 700 km expressway aimed at improving connectivity between Lagos and Calabar.

In the education sector, President Tinubu is said to have inaugurated the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund) projects worth over N2.1 billion at the University of Calabar.

The projects are said to have included the Hall of Fame Complex, Faculty of Engineering Workshop, Pharmacy Administrative Block, Fire Service Station, and Faculty of Education Building.

As the administration braces the mid-term tape, the consensus opinion of Nigerians is that President Tinubu should deploy his Renewed Hope Agenda into governance and less of political cum future electoral concerns.