Israel is “fully ready” to launch a military operation against Iran, according to a CBS News report- a step that could upend fragile diplomacy, trigger retaliatory strikes against US assets in the region, and plunge the Middle East into a wider war.Why it matters

The big pictureThe US has steadily repositioned diplomatic and military personnel over recent weeks, as tensions have risen sharply across the region. On Wednesday, Britain’s Maritime Trade Organization issued a rare warning for shipping vessels navigating the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman - vital corridors for global oil trade - citing risks of military escalation.Behind the scenes, Israel’s government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has grown increasingly convinced that Iran is using negotiations as cover to advance its nuclear program.

Netanyahu’s office claims Israel has executed “countless overt and covert operations” to stall Iran’s progress, but officials believe a military operation may now be required.The backstoryNetanyahu has long opposed any diplomatic agreement that allows Iran to continue uranium enrichment. He publicly clashed with Obama over the 2015 deal and was reportedly warned last month by President Trump to delay any military action until negotiations conclude.

“I told him this would be inappropriate to do right now because we’re very close to a solution,” Trump said in May. That restraint may now be breaking down.Iran continues to insist its nuclear ambitions are peaceful - focused on energy and medical uses - but IAEA inspectors and US officials remain unconvinced. Last month, US intelligence estimated that Iran could produce enough fissile material for a weapon in a matter of weeks.

What they're saying

Zoom inIran’s uranium stockpile has grown rapidly. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimated just weeks ago that Iran now holds 408.6 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60% purity - alarmingly close to the 90% threshold needed for a nuclear bomb. That marks a jump of nearly 50% from its stockpile earlier this year.Meanwhile, nuclear negotiations remain deeply uncertain. US envoy Steve Witkoff still plans to meet Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Oman this weekend - the sixth round of talks.

But even that meeting is no longer guaranteed. “I’m getting more and more less confident,” Trump said on the “Pod Force One” podcast this week. “Something happened to them.”Between the lines: A region on edge

What’s nextIf Israel moves forward with its strike, Iran is expected to retaliate against American and allied assets across the Middle East. That includes US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE - all within missile range of Iran and its proxies.Oil markets are already reacting. News of potential embassy evacuations pushed Brent crude up more than 4% to over $69 per barrel. Any strike in or near the Strait of Hormuz - through which 20% of the world’s oil passes - would likely spike prices further.(With inputs from agencies)