Market outlook: Nifty 50 tops 24,700 after India-Pakistan ceasefire; What are the next levels to watch out this week
: Boosted by the India-Pakistan ceasefire, India's key stock market indices saw a strong gap-up opening on Monday.
The Nifty 50 began trading at 24,420 and surged to an intraday high of 24,737, gaining more than 700 points. The BSE Sensex opened at 80,803 and quickly climbed to 81,830, marking an impressive intraday rise of over 2,200 points shortly after the market opened.
The Bank Nifty also had a strong start at 54,658, crossing the 55,000 mark and reaching an intraday high of 55,292.
Stock market experts believe the main driver behind the recent rally in the Indian stock market is the ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan. They also pointed to several other contributing factors, including the US-China trade agreement, the UK-EU trade deal, progress on the India-UK Free Trade Agreement, strong AMFI data boosting retail investor confidence, and growing speculation about foreign institutional investors (FIIs) increasing their buying activity — all of which helped lift the Dalal Street indices on Monday.
The Indian markets witnessed a sharp sell-off for the second consecutive session, driven largely by escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan.
Despite positive global cues, Nifty opened with a gap-down and remained under pressure throughout the session, finally closing at 24,008, down 265.80 points or 1.1%. The broader sentiment remained cautious, with traders shifting to risk-off mode amid the ongoing uncertainty.
According to Choice Broking report, Nifty broke below its recent consolidation zone but managed to hold above the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), which currently acts as immediate support, technically.
“Nifty appears to be in its 3rd wave, with a key target at 23,850 (1.618 level). If the index fails to hold this level, the next potential support lies near 23,490 (2.618 level). A decisive close below 24,000 could accelerate the downside momentum in the short term,” it said.
Meanwhile, Bank Nifty closed at 53,595.25, registering a 2.76% loss from the previous week's close. The weekly chart indicates rejection at higher levels; however, the index has failed to hold above the crucial 54,000 mark. Additionally, the selling pressure at higher levels suggests a potential pause in the ongoing uptrend, pointing to a sideways to bearish or consolidation phase in the near term.
On the Bank Nifty outlook, the brokerage firm said, “This week, the Bank Nifty index formed a strong-bodied bearish candle with no upper or lower wick, supported by consistent trading volumes. This indicates rejection at higher levels and a possible pause in the current uptrend. The candlestick pattern reflects pressure among market participants and suggests a likely sideways to bearish or consolidation phase in the near term. A “sell on rise” strategy is recommended as long as the index holds below 55,000, with lower targets placed at 53,000 and 52,000.”
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