Kenya budget developments

Ghana's Minister for Finance, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, engaged with market women, including head porters (kayayei), and traders at Makola Market on March 8, 2025, to discuss their concerns ahead of the 2025 Budget presentation. Dr. Forson acknowledged their vital role in Ghana’s economy. The discussions, accompanied by Deputy Minister Thomas Nyarko Ampem, focused on inflation, taxation, and access to credit, with assurances that their concerns would be considered in the upcoming budget policies.
The government approved the fiscal policy document for 2025 before its presentation to Parliament. Mr. Kweku Ricketts-Hagan, the Deputy Majority Leader, announced the budget presentation, scheduled for March 11, 2025, in accordance with Article 179 of the 1992 Constitution, urging Members of Parliament to be present. He also requested timely submission of sectoral estimates from ministries for parliamentary review and approval, and a post-budget workshop was scheduled for all MPs.
The budget is expected to detail the economy and government policy proposals for Ghana’s economic transformation, aligning with President John Dramani Mahama’s vision. Minister for Government Communications, Felix Kwakye Ofosu, stated that the budget policies would be informed by recommendations from the National Economic Dialogue held on March 3 and 4, 2025. The Presidential Advisor on the 24-hour Economy, Mr. Gossie Tandoh, is preparing for the rollout of President Mahama’s policy to transform Ghana. Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson informed the Cabinet of the dire economic situation, with figures worse than previously known.
The first Cabinet meeting set benchmarks for Ministers, including briefings on security, the 24-hour economy policy, agriculture transformation, and the state of the economy. The Business Statement for the week included 30 questions for seven ministers, with 29 oral and one urgent. Ministers from Energy and Green Transition, Local Government, Chieftaincy and Religious Affairs, Gender, Children and Social Protection, Lands and Natural Resources, Health, Foreign Affairs, and Roads and Highways were programmed to attend. A Committee of the Whole Meeting was scheduled for the government statistician to engage MPs on Ghana’s statistical products, especially digital platforms.
In Kenya, the national budget has expanded from KSh 1 trillion in 2010/11 under President Mwai Kibaki to KSh 4.2 trillion proposed for 2025/26 under President William Ruto. Kibaki's budgets focused on Vision 2030 projects, with moderate borrowing that kept external debt around 23% of GDP by 2013. Under President Uhuru Kenyatta, the budget increased to KSh 3.31 trillion by 2022/23, driven by the “Big Four” agenda and devolution costs.
Kibaki's budgeting focused on Vision 2030, with the 2010/11 budget reaching KSh 999,277,657,525 to fund roads, energy, and education projects. By Kibaki’s final year, 2013/14, the budget grew to KSh 1.64 trillion as the government prepared for devolution. Borrowing was moderate, with external debt at about 23% of GDP, according to World Bank data.
After Kibaki, Uhuru Kenyatta dealt with increased expenditure due to devolution. In 2014/2015, budget estimates crossed KSh 2 trillion, reaching KSh 2,099,370,186,39. The “Big Four” agenda pushed the budget to KSh 2.79 trillion by 2019/20, but revenue couldn’t keep pace. The 2020/21 budget, trimmed to KSh 2.74 trillion amid COVID-19, required heavy borrowing, with the deficit peaking at 8.7% of GDP. Kenyatta’s tenure saw the budget climb to KSh 3.31 trillion by 2022/23. Public debt soared from KSh 1.8 trillion in 2013 to over KSh 10 trillion by 2022, according to the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK). Servicing external loans consumed nearly half of tax revenues by the time President William Ruto took office in 2022.
President William Ruto inherited a fiscal challenge in 2022. His first budget was KSh 3.342 trillion in 2022/23, driving the budget deficit to KSh 862.5 billion. Measures to increase revenue collections led to estimated revenue collections of KSh 2,919.8 billion against a budget estimate of KSh 3,680.0 billion, leaving a budget deficit of KSh 718.0 billion in the 2023/24 financial year. In 2024/25, the initial KSh 3.99 trillion plan was slashed to KSh 3.87 trillion after protests against the Finance Bill 2024. For the 2025/26 financial year, Ruto’s government has set a budget estimate of KSh 4.2 trillion, approved by the Cabinet in February 2025, following a draft Budget Policy Statement earlier pegged at KSh 4.49 trillion. As the KSh 4.2 trillion budget for 2025/26 awaits parliamentary approval, the question remains whether revenue collections will catch up or if borrowing will continue to fund the budget deficits.