Fed Rate Decision Nears as Markets Watch Powell Closely
Traders are nearly unanimous: the Federal Reserve likely won’t cut interest rates today.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch, the probability of holding the rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50% sits at 99.9%. Despite solid job growth, lower labor participation and persistent 2.8% core inflation complicate the outlook.
Fed watchers aren’t looking for action—they’re waiting for guidance. Powell’s words, especially on inflation and tariffs, will steer market sentiment far more than the rate decision itself.
Today’s FOMC update includes the latest dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections, which could show whether the Fed expects rate cuts later in the year. Powell’s comments on paused reciprocal tariffs and the 10% levy rollout may also hint at the inflation picture.
Although inflation data shows no direct impact from tariffs so far, Powell’s read on potential risks will shape policy expectations.
While economic factors dominate the discussion, political pressure adds tension. President Donald Trump has voiced strong dissatisfaction with Powell’s stance. With Powell’s term ending in May 2026, some expect Trump could seek a leadership change at the Fed if re-elected.
Still, Powell is expected to keep his message clear: inflation remains the key concern, and policy changes depend entirely on the data.
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