Happy hurricane season!

Clearly, many of you left several gallons of distilled water and a 96-pack of Kirkland Signature AAA batteries out in a windowless interior room on Hurricane Season Eve to appease the Cyclone Imp, because the 2025 hurricane season is off to an auspicious start.

Call it Christmas in June: Internet rumors to the contrary, not a tropical depression will be stirring in the Gulf and Caribbean for another week or more.

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The minimal activity in the Tropics today is actually beneficial. On the fifth day of hurricane season, the typical gift is disorganized moisture from the south (or for those observing the traditional bird-based gift calendar, five awkward teenage geese), and that’s just what we are seeing out there now.

An upper-level low over the eastern Gulf has been interacting with an old, stalled-out frontal boundary this week, enhancing rainfall over the Florida peninsula. As of Wednesday afternoon, rainfall totals have been two to four inches in South Florida and half an inch to an inch in Central Florida.

With much of the southern half of the state in moderate to extreme drought, this precipitation is a helpful kick-start to the wet season.

For the next day or two, Florida will continue to be wreathed in above-normal thunderstorm coverage as the old front drifts north. Rain chances diminish on Thursday in South Florida and Friday in North Florida as a weak area of low pressure develops in the Carolinas.

If the low were to form over water, it would have a fighting chance of tropical or subtropical development, but given the trend towards more inland formation, don’t expect a named or numbered system out of this one.

The coastal Carolinas will dry out by late Friday as the low scoots northeast and out-to-sea. Otherwise, the rest of the Tropical Atlantic is devoid of thunderstorm activity, nestled beneath a thick, festive layer of African dust.

In the first half of June, the Ghosts of Hurricane Seasons Past tell us that the most common locations for tropical storm development are the northwestern Caribbean and eastern Gulf, with something forming between June 1-15 once every three years or so.

This year, upper-level winds are likely to remain more favorable for tropical development on the Eastern Pacific side of Central America rather in the Gulf or Caribbean, for at least the next 10 days.

Thus, none of the reputable forecast models are showing a realistic chance of anything tropical forming on the Atlantic side of Central America through mid-month.

Except the GFS. The American model is adamant that a Caribbean tropical storm will spin up in 10 to 12 days, then move generally northward.

While some runs have shown an alarmingly strong hurricane, there is no chance of that happening for numerous reasons. First, only three June major hurricanes have occurred in the last 125 years, and projections of very rare outcomes should be viewed skeptically. Second, this purported hurricane hangs out in model La-La Land around two weeks away, never getting closer to fruition.

Finally, the GFS has a persistent and well-known bias for incorrectly predicting development in the Caribbean at this specific time of year.

All told, while something could eventually spin up in two or three weeks, the GFS’ frequent false alarms should be disregarded. To make a broader point, anybody that presents GFS fantasy hurricanes as a realistic possibility is not a reputable source of weather information.

Hurricane season has gotten too commercial, and there are many bad actors out there trying to profit from scaring people — if something is free, the product is you. My philosophy is that reality is plenty frightening, which is why I don’t talk about extreme, unrealistic scenarios like what the GFS has been showing.

Bottom line, don’t be naughty and share the day 15 GFS on social media, or the Cyclone Imp will target your house with an eyewall mesovortex.

Like the holidays, hurricane season tends to surface the same tired debates: Should Category 6 be added to the Saffir-Simpson Scale? Is Die Hard a hurricane season movie? Should there be a Die Hard 6?

Beyond the noise, all I want for hurricane season is you to be prepared to react when the serious threats inevitably roll in. That means not sweating the small stuff, and a big part of my job is to help you avoid doing just that.

Christmas may last but twelve days, but hurricane season is a hefty 183: that means whether engaging in bird gifting or assessing hurricane risks, you need to pace yourself or you’ll have a real mess on your hands.

So trim your trees, and keep watching the skies.

Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company providing forensic meteorology expert witness services and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscriptions. For more information, visit weathertiger.com or get in touch at [email protected].

This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: False alarms, beneficial rain and a dusty start to Florida storm season | WeatherTiger