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Derek Brockway: Could AI weather forecasting cost me my job?

Published 1 day ago3 minute read
- which have been seen in Wales several times recently.

Getty Images A lighthouse's light flashes towards the camera, and is surrounded by a purple horizon of sea and sky. Downward streaks of green are among the purple skyGetty Images

AI could more accurately predict showings of the Northern Lights, as pictured here at Strumble Head in Pembrokeshire

But space weather can be hazardous too, affecting Earth's magnetic field and potentially disrupting communication systems and infrastructure.

Dr Huw Morgan, Head of Solar System Physics at Aberystwyth University, led a project to enhance the Met Office's space weather forecasting.

Speaking from the university's AI Hub, he told me AI could offer a vital role.

"It's a very complicated system to try to model. Forecasts exist but they have many weaknesses because space weather is so complex," Dr Morgan said.

"And unlike on Earth, we can't put recording stations on the Sun or between the Sun and Earth.

"We are really dependent on remote data from telescopes.

"So AI offers a good solution, because we can't monitor the whole system constantly, and we cannot really build models that are appropriate for the system yet."

However, Dr Morgan acknowledges AI has its challenges and scientists will continue to rely on traditional space weather forecasting techniques for now.

BBC news A man stands in front of a glass building (Met Office in Exeter) with his hands in his pockets. He is wearing a navy shirt and jeansBBC news

Derek visited the Met Office to explore how AI could impact weather forecasting

So what about AI-generated weather presenters?

Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern is not so sure.

"It's important for people to have presenters they trust," he told me.

"No one wants an AI version of Derek.

"They want the real Derek - someone who can take all the data and explain it in a way that makes sense."

Aidan is optimistic about what the future holds for forecasting.

"When I started this job 18 years ago, we couldn't really predict beyond four or five days.

"Now we're giving outlooks 10 or even 14 days ahead.

"We may not be able to give specific details that far out but we can already offer a sense of whether it'll be warm or cold, wet or dry - and highlight big changes on the way.

"And with AI, the potential only grows.

"Just imagine - in the near future, we might be able to talk about a month's worth of weather at once, and visualise it in a way that really connects with the public.

"That's hugely exciting."

The potential for AI in weather prediction is immense, but AI won't replace traditional forecasting methods entirely.

It's more likely to work alongside them and be another tool for meteorologists like me to use.

For now, at least, I think my job is safe.

Hopefully the real Derek will continue to say "hello, shwmae" for a long while yet.

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