Geojit Investments has initiated coverage on Delhivery Ltd. with an rating and a 12-month price target of Rs. 431, signaling a 17% upside from current market price. The report highlights Delhivery’s robust Q4FY25 performance, underscored by a 5.6% year-on-year revenue surge to Rs. 2,192 crore, driven primarily by strong growth in the Part Truckload (PTL) segment. EBITDA margin expanded by 320 basis points to 5.4%, reflecting improved operational efficiency and fleet utilization. The company’s upcoming acquisition of Ecom Express is expected to further strengthen its market position and margins. Investors are urged to accumulate Delhivery shares, leveraging its scale, technology, and anticipated synergies from the Ecom Express deal.

Delhivery stands as India’s largest fully integrated logistics provider, boasting a formidable network that spans over 18,700 pin codes, 24 automated sort centers, and a workforce exceeding 57,000. The company has revolutionized commerce with cutting-edge technology, world-class infrastructure, and seamless logistics, delivering more than 2 billion orders to date. Its asset-light model and tech-driven approach have positioned it as a market leader in the highly competitive logistics sector.

Delhivery’s Q4FY25 results reflect a compelling turnaround and operational strength:

Consolidated Revenue: Increased 5.6% YoY to Rs. 2,192 crore, with Indian operations contributing Rs. 2,191 crore (up 5.6% YoY). International revenue, though a small fraction, surged 184.1% YoY to Rs. 3 crore.

EBITDA: Jumped 159.5% YoY to Rs. 119 crore, with margins expanding by 320 basis points to 5.4%. This improvement was driven by higher volumes, enhanced operational efficiency, and better fleet utilization.

Profit After Tax (PAT): Rose to Rs. 73 crore, benefiting from lower tax expenses (-62.6% YoY) and a 169.9% YoY increase in share of profits from associate companies.

Metric	Q4FY25	Q4FY24	YoY Growth (%)
Revenue (Rs. cr)	2,192	2,076	5.6
EBITDA (Rs. cr)	119	46	159.5
EBITDA Margin (%)	5.4	2.2	+320 bps
PAT (Rs. cr)	73	-68	n.m.

Express Parcel: Revenue grew 3.2% YoY to Rs. 1,256 crore, with shipments up 1% to 177 million. The segment faces intense competition, leading to aggressive pricing and margin pressure.

Part Truckload (PTL): Revenue surged 24% YoY to Rs. 517 crore, driven by a 19% YoY increase in tonnage to 458,000 tonnes. PTL is emerging as the primary growth driver for Delhivery.

Supply Chain Services: Revenue declined 2.1% YoY to Rs. 229 crore, reflecting competitive pressures in contract logistics.

Truckload: Revenue fell 13.2% YoY to Rs. 151 crore.

Cross Border Services: Revenue rose 9.7% YoY to Rs. 34 crore, showing resilience in international operations.

Ecom Express Acquisition: Delhivery plans to acquire Ecom Express for Rs. 1,400 crore, a deal awaiting regulatory approval. The acquisition is expected to expand Delhivery’s fulfillment center network by over 2,800 locations, driving operational synergies and margin improvement.

Rapid Commerce: The company’s rapid commerce service is gaining traction among B2B customers seeking faster supply chain solutions, further diversifying its revenue streams.

Dark Store Expansion: Delhivery operated 18 dark stores as of Q4FY25, with plans to expand to 50 by FY26. The older stores process 350–400 orders per day, targeting a break-even point of 700–800 orders per store.

Geojit’s projections for Delhivery are optimistic, with the following key forecasts:

Metric	FY25A	FY26E	FY27E
Sales (Rs. cr)	8,932	10,278	11,891
Growth (%)	9.7	15.1	15.7
EBITDA (Rs. cr)	376	678	1,034
EBITDA Margin (%)	4.2	6.6	8.7
PAT (Rs. cr)	167	318	530
PAT Growth (%)	n.m.	90.2	66.8
EPS (Rs.)	2.2	4.3	7.1
P/E (x)	113.7	86.6	51.9
EV/EBITDA (x)	49.8	40.2	26.3
ROE (%)	1.7	3.3	5.2

Geojit’s target price of Rs. 431 is based on 2.7x FY27E price-to-sales, reflecting confidence in Delhivery’s growth trajectory and the anticipated benefits of the Ecom Express acquisition.

Market Leadership: Delhivery’s scale, technology, and integrated network provide a significant competitive edge in India’s fragmented logistics market.

Margin Expansion: Operational efficiencies and the Ecom Express acquisition are expected to drive sustained margin improvement.

Growth Drivers: PTL and rapid commerce segments are poised for robust growth, offsetting challenges in express parcel and supply chain services.

Financial Strength: The company maintains a strong balance sheet with zero debt, positioning it well for future investments and acquisitions.

Competitive Pressure: Intense rivalry in express parcel and supply chain services could dampen margins.

Regulatory Hurdles: The Ecom Express acquisition is subject to regulatory approvals, which could delay expected synergies.

Execution Risk: Successful integration of Ecom Express and scaling of rapid commerce are critical for future growth.

Investors are advised to accumulate the stock, capitalizing on its leadership position, operational efficiencies, and growth potential.

Delhivery is at an inflection point, with its asset-light model, technology-driven operations, and strategic acquisitions positioning it for sustained growth. The company’s ability to drive margin expansion and capitalize on the fast-growing PTL and rapid commerce segments makes it a compelling investment in India’s logistics sector. Geojit’s Accumulate call and Rs. 431 target price underscore the confidence in Delhivery’s long-term value creation potential. Investors should consider accumulating the stock, with a keen eye on execution and regulatory developments.