Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) finds itself in the midst of a storm, one that raises critical questions about its role as the country’s primary economic data authority. The controversy surrounding its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February 2025 has not only cast doubt on its credibility but also on the government’s commitment to transparency and accountability.

In March 2025, the NBS reported a drop in Nigeria’s inflation rate to 23.18 percent from January’s 24.48 percent, defying expectations given the country’s enduring economic challenges. Initially, this report seemed to offer a glimmer of relief to policymakers and the public alike. However, any optimism quickly dissipated when the NBS quietly pulled the report from its website, later re-uploading a revised version stripped of historical data. No explanations were given: a silence that has spoken volumes.

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This is not an isolated incident. Earlier in January 2025, a cyberattack left the NBS website inaccessible for almost a month, during which time various reports quietly disappeared. These patterns of redacting, revising, and retracting critical economic data have left analysts and investors wary of the institution’s integrity. The removal of historical data makes trend analysis impossible, severely undermining the analytical value of the bureau’s output. In its report titled “The NBS Debacle and Matters Arising” published on January 15, 2025, Dataphyte argued that the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) silence could potentially fuel speculation about the political manipulation of data—an issue that might further harm Nigeria’s reputation within the global economic community.

In its defence, the NBS cited methodological changes, including a rebasing of the CPI to incorporate about 500 new products and enhanced data collection techniques. It is worth noting that under the leadership of Statistician-General, Adeyemi Adeniran, the NBS has made strides in data collection and reporting, including successfully conducting the fifth wave of the General Household Survey (GHS) Panel — a first for any National Statistics Office in Africa. Additionally, the NBS reported a year-on-year GDP growth of 3.19 percent for the second quarter of 2024, a marked improvement from the previous year’s 2.51 percent, demonstrating its commitment to providing quality economic data. Yet, the bureau’s failure to engage stakeholders before implementing these changes signals a troubling disregard for transparency. Economists and analysts require continuity in data for longitudinal studies that inform economic policy. Abrupt methodological shifts without comprehensive disclosure compromise the utility of the data and, by extension, the credibility of the policies shaped by it.

In its report titled “Questions and Insights from the February Inflation Data”, published on March 20, 2025, Agora Policy, a research organisation, highlighted startling inconsistencies in the NBS’s calculations—most notably a negative 12.3 percent month-on-month inflation rate for December 2024. This sharp volatility, which contradicts the modest fluctuations observed throughout the year, raises further doubts about the accuracy of the data. The NBS owes the public a clear and accessible explanation of these discrepancies.

The fallout from the NBS’s mishandling of data extends beyond the confines of statistical analysis — it undermines public trust in government institutions. This crisis of confidence is unfortunate given the agency’s notable achievements in advancing statistical practices, yet it also emphasises the need for consistent transparency and accountability. If the agency responsible for providing credible economic data can retract reports without accountability, what confidence can citizens and businesses have in the government’s commitment to economic recovery?

Moreover, the extended downtime of the NBS website has not only disrupted business planning but also left investors in limbo. Meanwhile, it was widely reported how businesses that rely on official data for financial forecasting have been forced to make decisions in a vacuum, increasing the risk of miscalculations that could deepen economic instability. This is not just a matter of poor communication; it is a crisis of governance.

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Data credibility is not a trivial matter. Policymakers, businesses, and international observers rely on the integrity of national statistics for economic planning and investment decisions. Erroneous data could distort fiscal policies, jeopardise investment, and deepen Nigeria’s socio-economic crisis. A Reuters report titled “Nigeria Inflation eases for second month after data overhaul”, published on March 17, 2025, has already attracted international scrutiny, potentially jeopardising Nigeria’s reputation as an investment destination. With the country’s economic narrative already marked by debt distress and weakened investor confidence, any further erosion of trust could prove detrimental.

To regain public trust, the NBS must commit to transparency. An immediate priority should be a publicly accessible account of methodological adjustments. Independent oversight, including regular audits and collaboration with credible research institutions, could help rehabilitate the NBS’s reputation. The institution could also benefit from aligning with international standards set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or World Bank, whose data protocols can strengthen credibility.

Ultimately, the bureau’s credibility is not solely its concern; it is a matter of national interest. As Nigeria struggles with its economic challenges, reliable data is critical for formulating policies that can genuinely alleviate the hardship faced by millions. The NBS must choose to be part of the solution rather than a catalyst for further confusion. If Nigeria’s statisticians lose the public’s trust, the consequences will extend beyond miscalculated inflation rates; indeed, they will threaten the very foundation of informed governance.