In the last eight county executive races, Nassau voters elected the candidate from the opposing political party of the president — a phenomenon that looms over Republican Bruce Blakeman as he campaigns in a November reelection bid.  

The pattern doesn't exist in Suffolk and might speak to the unpredictability of voters in Nassau who have selected both seasoned politicians and government newbies to manage the county. Held the year after presidential races, countywide elections in Nassau attract a smaller group of voters who may use the opportunity to log their resentment against White House politics or prioritize a different set of local issues, experts who've studied Nassau politics say.

"Voters in Nassau County are very independent-minded and tend to put their interests over ideology," said Meena Bose, executive dean at the Peter S. Kalikow School of Government Public Policy and International Affairs at Hofstra University. "What matters in a presidential election year may not have the same importance for voters one year later. There appears to be a shift in party priorities from a presidential year to a local election year." 

There is no consensus on what causes the trend, but researchers who've examined it point to several factors that play a role, including the timing of the election, the local issues and the candidate's ability to motivate voters to turn out.

Data from the county Board of Elections shows the trend began in 1992 when Republican Tom Gulotta became county executive the year after Democrat Bill Clinton won the presidency. That followed Democrat Tom Suozzi winning a year after Republican George W. Bush became commander-in-chief. Then Republican Ed Mangano became county executive after Democrat Barack Obama; Democrat Laura Curran after Republican Donald Trump won his first term; and Blakeman after Democrat Joe Biden won in 2020.

Despite Democrats' more than  75,000-voter enrollment edge over Republicans, Nassau has been referred to as a bellwether for the country due to the "swingy-ness" of its voters and the rising reliance on those unaffiliated with a party to win elections,  political leaders, consultants and academics say. Republicans since 2021 controlled all countywide offices and supervisor's seat in all three towns and maintained the majority on the county legislature. Yet Democrats represent those same areas in Congress. 

Lillian Clayman, a professor of labor relations in the politics, economics and law department at SUNY Old Westbury who wrote her dissertation on the history of Long Island politics, said even if Nassau County is populated primarily by people who have moved from New York City, one can't assume they would vote the same way as city residents. 

Local elections in Nassau are often a reflection of a candidate's commitment to economic development because winning candidates "always looked to provide jobs, particularly to the building trades — most of whom were unionized," said Clayman, who said shebelieves the president plays little role in the county executive's race because voters are more focused on their personal safety and the local economy. "It's a luxury to have an opinion on the president because that doesn't impact your life as much."

Clayman added that once candidates "lose the focus on working people and turn to the MAGA social issues they lose that support." 

Suozzi, of Glen Cove, a two-term county executive before becoming a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, said he believes local elections give people the first opportunity to log their resentment against the sitting president.

"The year after a presidential election gives people who are dissatisfied with the presidential election results an opportunity to express themselves and they become more motivated to show up and vote," said Suozzi. 

Former Republican Rep. Peter King of Seaford agreed with Suozzi to an extent about the trend in Nassau: "part of that may be a quirk but part of it is because of discontent with the sitting president and it's the voters' way of sending a message." 

Since taking office in 2022, Blakeman has both pursued an agenda of revving up Nassau's economy while also issuing executive orders that zero in on social issues aligned with Trump. 

Because Trump won Nassau in the 2024 presidential election, it will be interesting to see whether Republicans will prevail in county races, Bose said.

"The 2024 elections don't necessarily indicate what will be most important to voters in November '25," Bose said. "And that might be true between 2025 and '26."

Blakeman does not appear to be distancing himself from the sitting president despite conventional wisdom and election data. When asked whether he thought his staunch support of Trump would hurt or help, he said in a statement on Thursday: "Having the President of the United States as a friend of Nassau County is a very good thing." 

Trump this week posted a social media endorsement of Blakeman (Trump did not endorse Blakeman in 2021) by calling him "MAGA all the way." Over the next six months, the alliance built between the two men is expected to impact Blakeman's campaign, particularly because Trump in 2024 was the first Republican president to win the majority of Nassau County voters since 1988, according to election data. Democrat Seth Koslow, an attorney and county legislator from Merrick, is challenging Blakeman this November. 

Blakeman, however, has seemed to focus more in 2025 on the business of the county. He compromised with Democrats earlier this year to borrow for a capital plan to fund major infrastructure repairs like roads, parks and county buildings. He also agreed to renegotiate a health benefits package with members of the county's largest union, CSEA, offering the workers to pay 3% of their salaries for the state's costliest insurance plan.

For two years, Blakeman led a plan to build a $6 billion casino resort on the county-owned Nassau Coliseum property in Uniondale and a $3 billion NYU Langone medical center on the campus of Nassau Community College. The medical center project folded in March and last month casino company Las Vegas Sands announced it would not apply for a state gaming license. 

"I think Bruce is going to insulate himself against that," King said. "He's aware of it and realizes that he needs to run on his own and that you don't get any benefits of being in the same party as the president."