The title of this intervention is hedged with the word “theoretical”. That’s deliberate, and it’s because this article’s core proposition that former President Goodluck Jonathan could return to power in 2027 is patently far-fetched and improbable. Therefore, although there’s logic to the proposition, it’s purely theoretical.

Indeed, Jonathan’s wife, Patience, recently settled the matter when she said unequivocally that her husband would never go back to Aso Rock, and that, instead, she would campaign vigorously for the re-election of President Bola Tinubu. The bond between the Tinubus and the Jonathans is so strong, Mrs Jonathan implied, that it would be a betrayal if her husband ran against President Tinubu in 2027.

Yet, everyone must take the effusive avowal of loyalty to Tinubu with a large pinch of salt. Tell me, would Jonathan pass up the opportunity to emulate his good friend, President John Mahama of Ghana, who returned to power for a non-consecutive term after being defeated for re-election? Of course not: Jonathan would like to be the John Mahama of Nigeria!

Ahead of the 2023 presidential election, Jonathan seriously considered throwing his hat in the ring, despite Tinubu’s presidential ambition. He told a group of supporters: “The political process is ongoing. Just watch out!” He held a two-hour meeting with a group of nomadic pastoralists who vowed to raise N100m to buy him APC’s presidential nomination forms and also held a closed-door meeting with the then national chairman of APC, Abdullahi Adamu, apparently to explore the possibility of the party adopting him as its consensus candidate. Truth is, Jonathan is still licking the wounds of his defeat in 2015 – the first president to be denied a second term – and would like to redeem his bruised image.

In May 2022, I wrote a column titled “2023 presidency: The shameful behaviours of Jonathan, Emefiele” (BusinessDay, May 23, 2022). It was in response to the underhanded attempts by Jonathan and Godwin Emefiele, then governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, to enter the presidential race. I started the piece thus: “Here is the award for the ‘Most Disgraceful Political Behaviour’ ahead of 2023. And the joint winners are: Goodluck Jonathan, former president of Nigeria, and Godwin Emefiele, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN.” So, if I held those views about Jonathan’s attempt to return to power in 2023, why am I now suggesting he might be a good choice for the presidency in 2027? What has changed?

Well, what changed is the political reality of 2027. There are many aspects of that reality, but the starting point is that the presidency should and will remain in the South in 2027. Put differently, whatever political alignment or realignment is currently going on, the truth is that the President of Nigeria after the 2027 presidential poll will still be a Southerner!

“Thus, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar would be wasting his political energy if the political coalition he is building is so he can run for president for the seventh time in 2027, aged 80.”

Thus, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar would be wasting his political energy if the political coalition he is building is so he can run for president for the seventh time in 2027, aged 80. The noblest and most dignified position for Atiku in 2027 is to be a kingmaker, a bringer of change, without being the change itself. Indeed, it is in the North’s enlightened self-interest, and Nigeria’s best interest, to keep the presidency in the South in 2027, knowing that the North will have it in 2031 for eight years on a platter of gold! So, why would the North disrupt the rotational arrangement and heat up the polity instead of waiting for just four more years after 2027? Thankfully, intelligent, wise-hearted and patriotic Northerners know better, and the North will bide its time in 2027!

However, having said that the presidency must remain in the South in 2027, the next question is: must it also remain in the South-West? Well, let’s be clear. Although Tinubu campaigned on the Emi-lokan/Yoruba-lokan platform in 2023, his position was that the presidency should only rotate between the North and the South, not among the six geopolitical zones. Surely, if power were to rotate among the geopolitical zones, then the South-West should have ceded the presidency to the South-East in 2023, given that the South-East was the only geopolitical zone in the South that had not produced a president since Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999. So, while the presidency must remain in the South in 2027, it doesn’t have to remain in the South-West; another geopolitical zone in the South can complete the South’s remaining four years! Of course, some Yorubas will turn the race into an ethnic battle, insisting a Yoruba president must be allowed to do two terms, but the intelligent, wise-hearted and patriotic know that the slot belongs to the South, not specifically to the South-West.

But if the 2027 presidential slot belongs to the South, a separate question is: should Tinubu remain president after May 2027? Well, I leave that judgment to the North, the ultimate kingmaker in 2027. But if in just two years in office, Tinubu has so personalised power and captured the Nigerian state, if he has arrogated unprecedented powers to himself and deployed them so whimsically and self-servingly, one must be filled with dread about what would happen if he was in power for eight years. The Nigerian president is vested with unfettered powers, but Tinubu is not a leader who checks himself in the exercise of those powers. The words “playing God” are frequently used to describe Tinubu, and there’s some truth in it. But, as I said, it’s for those who have the votes to decide whether to sack or retain Tinubu in 2027. My argument here, however, is that if they choose to sack him, they have other Southerners to choose from: Goodluck Jonathan, Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi!

Unfortunately, the cards are stacked against Obi and Amaechi. If either of them runs for the presidency in 2027 and wins, he can only do one term in office precisely because power must return to the North in 2031. Obi and Amaechi seem to realise this, hence they recently vowed to do only one term as president, if elected. But that vow smacks of desperation and stretches credulity. Why would they do one term when they are constitutionally entitled to two? The vow can only be driven by desperation for power. But Obi and Amaechi are giving hostages to fortune and potentially pose a risk to Nigeria’s political stability with their one-term-only vows. Think about it, assuming a President Obi or a President Amaechi decides not to seek a second term in 2031, imagine the tension that would be generated by loyalists and supporters, who would pressure the president to do two terms, and the North, which would pressure him to honour his vow. Can Nigeria afford that tension?

Well, herein comes Jonathan. Constitutionally, he can only serve for one more term. Thus, his presidency would be devoid of the second-term tensions that would dog an Obi or an Amaechi presidency. Jonathan would transfer power seamlessly to a Northerner in 2031. He might even be a better president, learning from the mistakes of his first dispensation. So, if the North is fed up with Tinubu but considers Obi and Amaechi’s one-term-only vows too risky, they might turn to Jonathan. Just a theory, albeit with logic!